Why Price Alone Doesn’t Tell the Full Story in Strategic Metals

This article explains why published prices alone do not always reflect how strategic metals markets function in practice.

In last week’s post, we looked at how the strategic metals market has changed structurally as we entered 2026. One theme came up repeatedly: access to material is becoming as important as price itself.

A good illustration of this could be seen last year in certain heavy rare earths. During periods of constrained supply, availability for new investors was temporarily paused while existing material was prioritised for industrial use. At the same time, buyback activity reflected the urgency of real-world demand rather than headline price movements.

This kind of behaviour is not unusual in strategic metals. It highlights how demand often expresses itself first through access and material flows, with published reference prices adjusting later.

This week, we want to explore that idea in a bit more detail.

Strategic Metals Are Not Exchange-Traded Commodities

Unlike gold or silver, strategic metals are not traded on public exchanges with continuous price discovery. There is no central marketplace where buyers and sellers meet in real time.

Instead, pricing is typically based on reference levels, recent transactions, and negotiated contracts. These published reference prices are useful benchmarks, but they do not always reflect what is happening at the point where industry actually needs material.

That difference becomes especially visible when supply tightens.

When Demand Shows Up Before Prices Do

In several strategic metals, industrial demand tends to express itself first through behaviour rather than headlines.

Companies secure material earlier. Lead times extend. Availability narrows. In some cases, access is temporarily paused altogether while existing supply is prioritised for critical applications.

Only later do published prices fully adjust.

This is why, in strategic metals, availability can become the leading indicator, with price following rather than leading.

A Practical Example

During periods of tight supply, it is not unusual for material to move at levels above published references when industrial demand is urgent. Conversely, published prices can sometimes appear stable even as access becomes more difficult in practice.

This does not mean reference prices are wrong. It means they are snapshots of a market that moves through relationships, contracts, and delivery schedules rather than through open trading screens.

Understanding that distinction is essential to understanding how this market really works.

What This Means for Market Participants

As we move further into 2026, the strategic metals market is increasingly shaped by questions such as:

• Who needs material, and for what purpose?
• How quickly can it be delivered?
• How secure is the supply chain behind it?

These factors often matter more in the short and medium term than small movements in published prices.

Why This Perspective Matters

For those new to strategic metals, this is often the biggest conceptual shift.

Strategic metals are not about timing short-term price movements. They are about understanding supply constraints, industrial priorities, and the role these materials play in technologies and infrastructure that cannot easily substitute them.

In our next update, we will look more closely at how industry and governments are securing strategic metals, and why that behaviour is increasingly shaping the market.

As always, please don’t hesitate to contact us if you’d like to discuss how physical strategic metals can be added to your portfolio.