Terbium Prices

Terbium Price Forecast

At a glance

• YTD (2025) performance: ~+149% based on current internal buy-back offer
• Market status: Sales paused to private investors due to extreme tightness in heavy rare earth supply
• Strategic relevance: Remains one of the most supply-constrained rare earth elements globally
• Key drivers: Magnet demand in EVs & wind, China’s quota volatility, intensifying US–China tech rivalry
• Risk factors: High concentration of supply, weak downstream demand in certain tech segments, policy unpredictability

What changed in 2025

Terbium entered 2025 quietly, then behaved like it had been shot from a railgun.

From January’s $1,396.50/kg, terbium prices surged to internal resale levels of $3,484.50/kg, driven by two forces converging at once:

1. China’s stop–start rare earth export policy, culminating in the October 9 tightening, the October 30 suspension, and continuing uncertainty as Beijing reorganises its rare earth quotas for 2026.

2. The magnet supply chain pulling hard on heavy rare earths, with terbium, along with dysprosium & neodymium, remaining indispensable for high-temperature neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets.

By Q3 2025, liquidity in terbium oxide and metal had tightened to the point where new terbium sales to private investors were temporarily halted to prioritise industrial customers.

That pause itself speaks volumes: supply has rarely been this tight.

What this means for Terbium

The sharp price run-up and temporary pause in private-investor sales tell us something important: the short-term squeeze may ease slightly, but the structural tightness underneath hasn’t changed at all. Heavy rare earth supply remains overwhelmingly concentrated in China and Myanmar, with minimal new refining capacity coming online (USGS rare earths data). Magnet manufacturers are also increasing their terbium requirements for high-temperature stability, particularly in EV traction motors and defense systems.

In other words, we may see momentary cooling after such an aggressive spike. However, the medium-term fundamentals remain profoundly tight, and the long-term picture still leans toward structural undersupply. Terbium tends to overshoot in both directions because the market is so small; volatility is the surface-level noise, while scarcity is the underlying signal.

Price drivers tilting upward

• High-temperature magnet demand: EV automakers continue to need terbium-rich magnet grades for thermal stability, especially in high-performance motors (according to IEA’s EV Outlook).
• Defense-sector pull: Radar, sonar, guidance, and secure communication systems depend on terbium-doped components, and Western procurement is ramping up through 2026.
• Myanmar instability: The Kachin and Wa regions, major suppliers of heavy rare earth ores, are still experiencing periodic closures and cross-border interruptions.
• Processing dominance: Even if more ore emerges, separation capacity for terbium and other heavy rare earths is still almost entirely in China. This bottleneck amplifies every disruption.
• Policy risk premium: China’s 2025 quota volatility proved that terbium is a geopolitical instrument first, a commodity second. Markets price that uncertainty into forward curves.

Potential headwinds to watch

• Magnet thrift efforts: Japan, Korea, and the US continue to reduce terbium loading in select magnet grades. These gains tend to be incremental rather than revolutionary, but they may smooth extreme price peaks.
• Demand softness in certain EV segments: European EV manufacturers are delaying production targets, which could create short-term demand air pockets.
• Sudden quota loosening: If China temporarily increases heavy rare earth quotas to stabilise downstream industries, prices could momentarily cool even though structural deficits persist.
• Western supply ambition: Multiple rare-earth projects in the US, Australia, and Canada are advancing, but as with neodymium, the challenge isn’t mining ore; it’s refining it.
  China still holds 85%+ of global rare earth chemical separation capacity and has a 30-year head start in workforce expertise. Even with political will (especially under a Trump administration), Western heavy rare earth separation and magnet manufacturing will take a decade or more to scale. (US Department of Energy – Critical Materials Projects)

6–12 Month Forecast View

Bias: Moderately Bullish

Rationale: Terbium’s fundamentals remain exceptionally tight. Even if prices absorb a short-term pullback after the recent spike, the supply–demand balance still leans heavily toward deficit. The market’s sensitivity to Chinese export decisions makes volatility a given, but the directional pressure is still upward. The recent sale pause underlines just how little material is truly available.

12–24 Month Forecast View

Bias: Bullish with Volatility

Rationale: 2027 will be shaped by:

• New US, EU, and Japanese procurement actions
• Ongoing instability in Myanmar’s heavy rare earth corridors
• The next wave of EV and wind capacity expansion
• Western strategic stockpiling discussions following the Trump–Xi trade truce reset

Even if substitution research makes progress, industries requiring high-temperature tolerance will continue to rely on terbium-rich magnet grades. Expect sharp price swings, but higher average pricing than 2024–2025.

3–5 Year Forecast View

Bias: Strongly Bullish

Rationale:
Terbium remains one of the most irreplaceable and least available materials in the entire rare earth family. Fraunhofer ISI, multiple defense procurement agencies, and the US DOE all project chronic structural shortages through the early 2030s.

Three macro forces define this longer horizon:

1. Global electrification (EVs, offshore wind, robotics, automation)

2. Strategic stockpiling (NATO countries have already begun pre-2027 accumulations)

3. China’s dominance of heavy rare earth processing (and no realistic alternative within 5 years)

All three point in the same direction: tight supply, rising strategic value, and long-run upward price pressure.

Why Physical Terbium Fits the Strategic Metals Invest Playbook

Even though terbium sales are currently paused for private investors, the logic that made it such a compelling asset remains intact:

• One of the scarcest industrial materials in the high-tech economy
• Irreplaceable for high-temperature performance magnets
• Directly exposed to the largest megatrends of the decade: AI, EVs, offshore wind, defense, and AI autonomous systems
• Extremely constrained supply, concentrated in a single geopolitical region (China)
• High liquidity for industrial buyers, even in times of market stress
• Long-term price trajectory aligned with structural shortages confirmed by the Fraunhofer Institute and multiple Western agencies
• And, in this case, outstanding real-world performance: ~149% YTD based on the internal buy-back level of $3,484.50/kg

For clients who already hold terbium, the asset has behaved exactly as a critical heavy rare earth should during a period of global supply tension: it has protected purchasing power, appreciated significantly, and demonstrated the value of owning physical materials outside conventional markets.

The 10-year forecast graphs below, by Argus Media, show terbium’s future price (fob China), demand, and supply estimates.