Gallium Update: Up 32.5% So Far in 2025

Gallium has quietly turned into one of this year’s most interesting stories among strategic metals. While several elements have rallied strongly, Gallium’s 32.5% rise has been powered by a rare combination of policy, scarcity, and technology demand.

The move began after China expanded its export ban on gallium shipments to the United States in December 2024. That single policy decision rippled through Western supply chains, tightening access to one of the most critical materials in modern electronics.

A Metal at the Heart of Modern Technology

Gallium’s importance comes from its use in compound semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) and gallium arsenide (GaAs). These materials are the foundation of 5G antennas, EV power systems, solar technology, and radar components.

Unlike copper or aluminum, gallium isn’t mined directly. It’s extracted as a by-product of aluminum and zinc refining, meaning global output can’t easily ramp up when demand surges. With China responsible for over 95% of primary production, supply is not just tight … it’s strategic.

The 2025 Price Drivers

Three main trends have defined gallium’s price action so far this year:

1. Export restrictions and trade friction – The ban on U.S.-bound shipments, along with strict export licensing, has reshaped supply routes and lifted Western premiums.
2. Soaring semiconductor and defense demand – The rollout of new EVs, 5G base stations, and high-performance radar systems continues to pull heavily on limited gallium inventories.
3. Policy support and stockpiling – The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and U.S. Department of Energy’s “critical materials” list have both elevated gallium to strategic priority status.

The result is a market where supply constraints and national security interests now dictate pricing more than traditional industrial cycles.

Looking Ahead

The next 12 to 24 months are likely to see continued tightness and price volatility. Western recycling and recovery projects are progressing, but slowly. This delay actually supports current prices by keeping the market structurally undersupplied.

Longer term, analysts expect steady demand growth from semiconductors, power electronics, and renewable energy, while full diversification away from Chinese refining remains years off.

Why It Matters for Investors

For investors, gallium’s story underscores the importance of physical ownership in a supply chain dominated by one country. It remains a textbook example of how strategic scarcity and technological relevance can combine to create enduring value.

Those holding physical gallium are well positioned to benefit from further market rebalancing as Western nations push for greater resource independence.

Read the Full Forecast

For detailed projections, geopolitical context, and 3–5 year outlooks, visit our in-depth Gallium Price Forecast