Ruthenium Prices

At a glance

• Further gains after a standout year: SMI displays $74.99 per gram on October 13. Its calculated increase is 54.05% this year, following a 162.57% rise in 2025.
• A continuing supply shortfall: Available primary supply remains constrained by ruthenium’s position as a minor by-product of platinum-group mining.
• Digital infrastructure matters: Hard-disk storage, electronic components, and selected advanced chip processes give ruthenium a tangible role in the expansion of computing.
• Outlook: Constructively bullish, with substantial volatility risk. Electronics strength must be weighed against weaker chemical demand and changing technology.

What changed for Ruthenium in 2026

Ruthenium quietly became one of 2025’s strongest performers. The advance has continued: Ruthenium’s price is now 304.57% above its start-of-2025 level. That is a substantial repricing, rather than an investment case still waiting to be recognised.

Johnson Matthey’s May 2026 report forecasts primary supply of 977,000 troy ounces against net industrial demand of 1,193,000 ounces. The resulting 216,000-ounce deficit is smaller than 2025’s estimated shortfall, but still significant. These are full-year forecasts, not a measurement of October stocks.

The demand picture is mixed. Johnson Matthey expected electrical demand to rise while weaker chemical purchasing reduced total demand. Strategic buying also affects availability. The rally therefore cannot be explained simply as every industrial use accelerating at once.

What this means for Ruthenium

The original technology-led investment case remains relevant. Ruthenium is used in hard-disk recording layers and electronic resistors, while its catalytic properties support chemical production and industrial electrodes. Cloud computing and artificial intelligence can expand the infrastructure using these materials.

Advanced chips add another opportunity. Applied Materials has documented commercial use of ruthenium-cobalt liners that help make microscopic copper wiring more efficient. This is a specific manufacturing application, rather than evidence that every AI chip requires large quantities of ruthenium.

Supply cannot respond quickly to ruthenium demand alone, because mine investment depends on the wider mix of metals produced. Nevertheless, processing improvements, recycling, and existing inventories can add available material. A tight market should not be confused with a market containing no stocks or alternatives.

Price drivers tilting upward

• Data storage and electronics: More computing infrastructure supports demand for ruthenium-bearing storage media and components. The benefit depends on the technologies manufacturers choose.
• Chip miniaturisation: Smaller, more energy-efficient circuits create opportunities for ruthenium in selected wiring processes.
• Slow primary-supply response: Concentrated production and complex refining mean additional demand cannot immediately be met by opening dedicated ruthenium mines.
• Security-of-supply buying: Industrial customers and other buyers building inventories can reduce metal available for immediate delivery.

Potential headwinds to watch

• Changing storage technology: Heraeus’s 2026 outlook flags the shift toward heat-assisted magnetic recording as a risk to ruthenium use. Growth in stored data need not translate into proportional growth in metal consumption.
• Chemical-industry cycles: Johnson Matthey expected excess capacity in China’s caprolactam industry, which supplies a nylon ingredient, to reduce catalyst purchasing in 2026. High prices also encourage alternative processes and more economical use of metal.
• Supply improvements: Better refining throughput and recovery of used material can ease shortages even without a major new mine.
• A higher starting valuation: After exceptional gains, softer orders or inventory releases could trigger a sharp correction.

Ruthenium 6–12 month forecast view

Bias: Constructively firm, with sharp two-way volatility.

Rationale:

The projected deficit and electronics demand support elevated prices. However, the smaller forecast shortfall and weaker chemical buying argue against extrapolating the previous rate of appreciation. Delivery conditions, customer orders, and the willingness of holders to sell will help determine whether tightness persists.

12–24 month forecast view

Bias: Bullish, conditional on sustained electronics demand.

Rationale:

Continued investment in computing and electronics manufacturing could keep pressure on a slowly expanding supply chain. The strongest upside case combines sustained demand for ruthenium-bearing products with limited inventory replenishment. A faster switch to lower-ruthenium storage designs or prolonged chemical weakness would temper it.

3–5 year forecast view

Bias: Constructive, with meaningful advanced-technology upside.

Rationale:

Ruthenium could gain additional applications as chipmakers tackle the limits of conventional wiring. Intel demonstrated promising ruthenium interconnect research in June 2026, but classified it as longer-term development. Commercial adoption could broaden demand; its timing, scale, and metal requirements remain uncertain. This supports upside potential without treating laboratory results as committed purchases.

Why physical Ruthenium fits the Strategic Metals Invest framework

• Exposure to digital infrastructure: Ruthenium connects physical-metal ownership with storage, electronics, and selected advanced semiconductor applications.
• Scarcity that is difficult to resolve quickly: Its by-product production model limits how rapidly mining can respond to stronger demand.
• More than a single technology: Resistors, industrial catalysts, and electrodes complement the computing story, although their purchasing cycles differ.
• Potential beyond the current cycle: Emerging chip applications could add value over time, providing a distinct long-term rationale for holding the metal.

Physical ownership offers direct participation in ruthenium’s price development. Industrial-grade purity, documented provenance, and an established resale route are important in this specialist market. A medium- to long-term perspective helps frame the opportunity, while costs and the risk of substantial price declines still require attention.