
Antimony: Supply Diversification, Export Controls, and the 2026 Outlook
February 26, 2026From Brasília to Seoul, countries are ramping up efforts to challenge China’s dominance in rare earths, as Brazil and South Korea push new alliances to secure critical mineral supply chains. Meanwhile, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, the largest miner in the sector outside China, reported soaring profits this week.
RARE EARTHS:INDIA AND BRAZIL TO CHALLENGE CHINA’S DOMINANCE –
Both countries possess enormous reserves of these critical minerals and aim to benefit more from them.
India and Brazil have signed an agreement to strengthen cooperation on critical minerals, including rare earths. The pact is intended to help establish new, resilient supply chains, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during a three-day state visit by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During the meeting, additional agreements were also signed in strategic sectors such as energy, climate action, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
The partnership between the two BRICS nations comes amid rising geopolitical tensions and the destabilization of existing trade structures. Many economies are pursuing new strategic partnerships, partly to reduce their heavy reliance on critical minerals from China, another BRICS member. At the same time, both India and Brazil are affected by U.S. trade policy.
Partnership holds potential, but China remains the dominant player:
The new cooperation offers potential in the rare earth sector, but whether it can curb China’s dominance in the long term remains uncertain. According to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey, Brazil holds the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earths, after China. Last year, the U.S. Geological Survey reported that India had the third-largest reserves; no data were available for 2026.
Both countries currently exploit only a small portion of their vast reserves. Processing capacities are even more limited, though initial pilot projects exist. India aims primarily to supply its emerging domestic production sector with homegrown resources and reduce import dependence, while Brazil positions itself as a potential alternative supplier to China.
At the same time, Brazil significantly increased its rare-earth exports to China last year and remains partially dependent on China for building its own refining capacity. China holds a massive lead in the technologies required to separate and process these minerals and protects its know-how, not least through export restrictions. Brazil has recently launched new targeted partnerships with Western companies, such as the Canadian company Ucore Rare Metals, but establishing a fully-fledged downstream rare earth industry is still expected to take many years.
SOUTH KOREA AND BRAZIL SEEK CLOSER TIES:
Presidents Lula and Lee aim to expand cooperation on raw materials and other strategic areas.
After strengthening cooperation with India, Brazil is now also seeking closer collaboration with South Korea on critical raw materials, according to the Korea Times. At a summit meeting in Seoul, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his counterpart Lee Jae Myung agreed on a four-year plan to deepen cooperation in strategically important resources, environmental issues, and cultural exchange.
The two countries could be a “perfect match”: Brazil possesses key raw materials South Korea’s industry requires, including rare-earth elements. In return, the Asian nation could provide technological expertise. Lula specifically highlighted the semiconductor industry as an example—an area in which South Korea holds a globally leading position.
Talks in Seoul also addressed the possible resumption of negotiations on a trade agreement between South Korea and Mercosur. In addition to Brazil, Mercosur includes Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Negotiations on such an agreement were suspended in 2021.
UNITED STATES MODEL AIMS TO MAKE RECYCLING PROFITABLE:
Researchers want to close a critical gap in the circular economy by using critical materials from e-waste to support U.S. national security and economic resilience.
The amount of electronic waste continues to grow year by year. This not only poses environmental hazards but also weakens the supply of raw materials. Discarded devices contain valuable resources such as rare earths, lithium, and precious metals—resources that many countries are aiming to produce domestically to reduce import dependence. Around the world, governments are therefore seeking to increase recycling and backing these efforts with financial support. So far, however, hurdles like high processing costs and regulatory uncertainties have slowed progress.
Researchers at the University of Houston in Texas have now developed a supply chain model designed to make large-scale recycling significantly more profitable for private industry. According to lead researcher Professor Jian Shi, the current system is expensive and complicated: a fragmented network of manufacturers, independent collectors, and material processing companies often operates inefficiently.
New Model Turns Competitors Into Recycling Partners:
The study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, demonstrates how competitors could instead become partners and how profits could be distributed more fairly. The model incorporates consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. The researchers concluded that subsidies alone are not enough to make the circular economy efficient; additional targeted incentives for companies and region-specific policy support are required, as simulations for Sub-Saharan Africa, wealthy industrial nations, and emerging Asian economies show.
Compared to the baseline scenario, the model shows clear financial benefits for electronics manufacturers, partly because they can take back and process e-waste themselves rather than relying on retailers or third parties. Recycling volumes would also increase slightly, and collection points could nearly double their earnings if costs are shared. Most importantly, critical materials could be kept in the U.S., benefiting national security and the economy instead of ending up in foreign landfills, Shi emphasizes.
RISING DEMAND FOR RARE EARTHS:
Western industry is increasingly seeking alternatives to China’s rare-earth supplies, a trend benefiting Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths. In its half-year results released today, the company reported significant growth in revenue, operating earnings, and net profit. For the six-month period ending December 31, 2025, Lynas generated revenue of $218 million, representing a 63% increase compared with the same period last year. Net profit surged to $55 million, an increase in the four-digit percentage range year-over-year. However, according to Reuters, the results fell short of analyst expectations.
During the reporting period, Lynas also made progress in producing heavy rare-earth elements (HREEs) and secured its first supply contracts in this segment. To support this business, the company plans to expand its existing production capacity in Kuantan, Malaysia. In the past six months, Lynas produced 35 tonnes of dysprosium and terbium in Kuantan. These elements are considered strategically critical. China, the dominant global supplier, has imposed strict export controls on several rare earth elements, including dysprosium and terbium, affecting global availability and reinforcing the strategic importance of non-Chinese suppliers.
Operations were negatively impacted by power supply disruptions in Kalgoorlie, Australia. At this site, ore concentrate from Lynas’ Mt Weld mine is processed before being shipped to Malaysia for refining. The electricity issues temporarily constrained processing operations.
Meanwhile, plans to build a heavy rare earth processing facility in the United States, a project supported by US Department of Defense funding, remain subject to significant uncertainties, according to the company.
ZIMBABWE BAND EXPORTS OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS:
The Southern African nation joins other resource-rich countries seeking to boost local value creation.
Zimbabwe has immediately suspended the export of all unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates — a move aimed at promoting domestic processing and value addition. According to several media reports, the Ministry of Mines justified the measure by citing “ongoing mismanagement and losses.” The decision comes amid widespread small-scale mining, much of it illegal, which has often caused environmental damage and economic losses for the state. Under the new rules, only licensed mining companies with approved processing facilities are permitted to export minerals.
Zimbabwe is Africa’s largest producer of the battery raw material lithium and one of the world’s leading producers of platinum group metals. Other key mining outputs include gold, chromium, and diamonds. Around 80% of the country’s exports come from this sector. Much of the raw material has historically been processed abroad, particularly in China, although Chinese companies have also invested in local refining capacities. The government has long pursued a strategy to increase domestic processing and benefit more from its natural resources. Already in 2022, strict export restrictions were imposed on unprocessed lithium; the current measures now extend to lithium concentrates, a partially refined form.
With this ban, Zimbabwe joins several other countries, including Namibia, Gabon, and Indonesia, in efforts to expand local value addition from their mineral wealth.
USA: GOVERNMENT SUPPORT PAYS OFF FOR MP MATERIALS –
The U.S. rare earths producer MP Materials released its quarterly results on Thursday.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company returned to profitability but reported a 14 percent decline in revenue compared with the same period last year. MP Materials attributes this decrease to its decision to stop supplying concentrate to China. This step was a condition of its strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense. The agreement includes price guarantees, which have now had a positive effect on earnings. Overall, the reported figures reflect the company’s strategy of focusing on processed products, particularly those used in magnet manufacturing.
MP Materials also intends to expand significantly into manufacturing itself. Northlake, Texas, has been selected as the site for production, the company announced on Thursday. The company expects to invest approximately $1.25 billion in the facility, which will have an annual production capacity of 10,000 metric tons of neodymium-iron-boron magnets. This represents 10 times the capacity of the existing plant in nearby Fort Worth, where MP Materials produced its first rare-earth magnet prototypes at the beginning of 2025.
The state of Texas is supporting the construction of the Northlake plant with nearly $70 million in funding. Around 1,500 jobs are expected to be created at the site.
EUROPE TO IMPLEMENT MERCOSUR AGREEMENT:
Europe’s raw material supply could also benefit from the free trade agreement in the long term.
There’s new momentum in the trade agreement between the European Union and the South American Mercosur bloc: despite an ongoing review by the EU Court of Justice, the economic deal is set to be applied provisionally. This was announced in a statement by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Shortly before, Uruguay and Argentina became the first countries to ratify the agreement, providing the basis for the EU’s next step. Last Wednesday, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies approved the trade deal, which will soon be submitted to the Senate.
In January, after more than 25 years of negotiations, a breakthrough toward the free trade agreement had been achieved (we reported). However, the European Parliament then voted in favor of a legal review, which would have delayed formal entry into force by at least several months. Now, all parties – the EU member states as well as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay – can benefit from most of the advantages of the free trade agreement earlier than expected. The deal is expected to create a trade zone of over 720 million people and reduce tariffs worth billions of dollars. Supporters also hope for improved access to critical raw materials for Europe’s key industries: Argentina hosts some of the world’s largest lithium deposits for batteries, while Brazil holds the world’s largest rare-earth reserves after China.






