
From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case
November 5, 2026The U.S. midterm elections took center stage this week. Their outcome will likely shape the future direction of American domestic and foreign policy. Meanwhile, November 10 is drawing closer – the date on which the suspension of additional Chinese export controls on rare earths could expire.
Find out what else mattered this week in our roundup.
USA: MP MATERIALS REVENUE SURGES –
Higher sales volumes and prices boost business. First commercial magnet deliveries to General Motors are expected to begin in the fourth quarter.
MP Materials increased its revenue by 176 percent year-on-year to $147.7 million in the third quarter of 2026. According to the U.S. rare earth producer, the increase was driven by higher sales volumes and rising market prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal. Revenue growth was also supported by the sale of the rare earth intermediate product SEG+ for $31.6 million to a U.S. customer in the aerospace and defense industry. SEG+ is a concentrate containing samarium, europium, gadolinium, and other rare earth elements.
Production of neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr), a precursor material for high-performance permanent magnets, rose by 41 percent to 1,018 metric tons. The material is produced at the company’s Mountain Pass facility in California.
In addition to its revenue, MP Materials recorded $8.1 million under its price protection agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense. The agreement guarantees a minimum price of $110 per kilogram of NdPr for ten years. If the relevant market price falls below this level, the Department of Defense compensates the company for the difference. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) reached $41.1 million, compared with a loss of $12.6 million in the prior-year quarter. However, the company still reported a net loss of $20.7 million, roughly half the amount recorded a year earlier.
MP Materials Could Soon Begin Supplying GM:
MP Materials also reported progress at its magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas. The company has completed the qualification process for automaker General Motors. First commercial magnet deliveries and the associated revenue are expected to begin in the fourth quarter. This marks another step toward establishing a fully integrated domestic supply chain, from mining to finished magnets.
Further progress is also expected in the processing of other rare earth elements. As the company announced during its quarterly earnings call, commercial production of dysprosium and terbium at Mountain Pass is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter. Both elements are used, among other applications, in permanent magnets designed to withstand particularly high temperatures. Production of samarium and gadolinium is also expected to start in the first half of 2028. China has subjected all four elements to export controls since April 2025. Government authorization is required to export them from China.
UK: CALLS FOR REAL ACTION FOR RARE EARTHS –
The report criticizes insufficient efforts to reduce dependence on China and calls for concrete measures to secure critical mineral supplies.
The UK’s critical minerals policy has received a damning assessment from the Business, Innovation, Science and Trade Sub-Committee on Economic Security, Arms and Export Controls. In a report published today, the House of Commons subcommittee, which examines issues relating to economic security, arms and export controls, criticizes the government’s insufficient efforts to reduce the country’s dependence on China for critical minerals.
Without secure access to these resources, the UK would be unable to rearm its armed forces, achieve its transition to net zero or build the AI infrastructure on which its future prosperity depends, the committee warns.
China’s control over large parts of global critical mineral supply chains therefore threatens not only the UK’s economic security but also its national security. The export controls on rare earth elements introduced in April 2025 demonstrated the vulnerability of British industry. Although the measures were not specifically directed at the UK, they also affected British manufacturers.
The committee criticizes the government for failing to develop sufficient alternative supply chains. In particular, it identifies a lack of systematic assessment of supply risks and a clear strategy outlining which minerals should be mined and processed domestically and which should be secured through international partnerships. The committee also recommends establishing a dedicated financing facility for critical minerals projects, strengthening international cooperation and building strategic mineral stockpiles.
JAPAN FEELS YTTRIUM SUPPLY CRUNCH:
Amid sharply declining Chinese exports, Japanese trading house Sojitz plans to source the rare earth element from Lynas in the future.
Japanese trading house Sojitz plans to begin importing yttrium from Malaysia as early as 2027. The material will be supplied by Australian rare earth producer Lynas Rare Earths, which is currently expanding its processing facilities in the Southeast Asian country. Sojitz President Kosuke Uemura announced the plans during the company’s latest earnings presentation, according to Nikkei Asia. The company also expects to source other medium and heavy rare earths, including samarium, gadolinium, and lutetium, from Malaysia in the future.
The move comes amid ongoing yttrium supply shortages. According to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China’s exports of yttrium products nearly halved between 2024 and 2025. Japan has been particularly affected: Chinese shipments of yttrium oxide fell from 51 metric tons in September 2025 to just four metric tons in September 2026, a 92% decline. Yttrium is among the rare earth elements that China placed under export controls in April 2025. It is used in applications including heat-resistant ceramics, phosphors, and specialized coatings.
Long-Standing Partnership with Lynas
Sojitz has partnered with Lynas since 2010 and, together with
Japan’s state-backed Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC), has invested in the company’s expansion. Since October 2025, Sojitz has also been importing dysprosium and terbium through the partnership. In March 2026, the agreement was expanded to include additional rare earths, among them yttrium. Under the arrangement, Lynas will make up to 75% of its production of medium and heavy rare earths available to Japan.
To support these plans, Lynas is expanding its processing facilities in Malaysia. The new facility is designed to process up to 5,000 metric tons of heavy rare earth feedstock annually, with a nominal annual processing capacity of 1,100 metric tons for yttrium. Estimated investment costs have risen to approximately $205 million.
NORWAY: PROGRESS MADE AT FEN –
A pilot plant is to be built in southern Norway to test processing methods and ways to minimize environmental impacts.
At the end of September, the Norwegian government announced the start of a state-led planning process for the Fen deposit in southern Norway. The aim is to pave the way for the future extraction of rare earth elements at the site. Fen is considered Europe’s largest documented rare earth deposit and could help improve the supply of these critical raw materials to European industry.
Project developer Rare Earths Norway has now also made an investment decision to build a pilot plant for rare earth processing. The project will receive a total of €24 million, including public funding. The plant is planned to be located at an existing industrial facility in nearby Ulefoss.
The pilot plant is scheduled to begin operations in the third quarter of 2027, well before commercial mining is expected to start in the early 2030s. The facility will be used to test all processing steps from ore to rare earth oxides, as well as ways to minimize the environmental impact of processing. The resulting rare earth products are intended to be supplied to European industrial partners for trial production of metals and magnets.
SAUDI ARABIA TARGETS BIGGER ROLE IN RARE EARTHS, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN. –
The kingdom aims to diversify its economy, in part by expanding mining and mineral processing. An analysis examines the opportunities and challenges.
Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its economy, which has long relied heavily on oil exports. Mining is intended to help achieve this goal under Vision 2030, the reform strategy unveiled in 2016. An analysis by the S&P Global Institute examines the sector’s potential and the obstacles to expansion.
The kingdom is looking to tap its only partly developed deposits of phosphate, gold, copper, zinc and rare earths. Following a reassessment in 2024, the government values (PDF) the country’s mineral wealth at around $2.5 trillion, about 90% above the 2016 estimate.
Budgets for exploring these deposits have risen sharply. About $146 million was allocated to exploration around existing mines in 2025, almost seven times the 2022 level. Gold and copper accounted for the bulk of the country’s overall exploration budget in 2025, according to S&P, leaving only around 5%, or $11.7 million, for other commodities such as rare earths.
State-Controlled Companies and International Partners:
State-controlled miner Ma’aden, already a producer of gold, copper, and phosphate, is playing a central role in the expansion. Saudi Arabia also wants to import feedstock and expand domestic processing to capture more value. Ma’aden’s partnership with U.S. rare earth producer MP Materials, announced in May 2025, reflects this approach. With the Pentagon also involved, the partners intend to build a refinery to process both domestic and imported feedstock. Ma’aden chief executive Bob Wilt said in a January interview that a final investment decision was expected by the end of 2026.
US Strategic Metals (USSM) and Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) are other U.S. companies planning processing facilities in Saudi Arabia. S&P sees the country’s low-cost energy supply, based largely on domestic oil and gas, as a key advantage for operating such plants.
Some future demand for these metals is expected to come from within Saudi Arabia. Car factories, the proposed Oxagon industrial city, data centers, hydrogen projects and the expansion of renewable energy could all contribute. S&P cautions, however, that it remains uncertain whether all these developments will go ahead. Water Scarcity, Skills Shortages and Regional Conflicts Pose Risks Fundamental questions remain on the supply side. Water scarcity, infrastructure gaps and skills shortages could hinder the development of mineral deposits. Regional conflicts pose risks to integration into global supply chains by disrupting shipping and driving up insurance costs. The analysts also call for improved transparency, corporate governance, and environmental standards to meet international requirements






